Validated Last updated: January 30, 2026

Collision probability for 10km-spaced swarm elements is less than 10^-9 per unit per year

collisiondebrissafetyorbital-mechanics
Original Source

Phase 1 Swarm Control System Consensus Document

Validation History

Simulation
92% confidence Jan 30, 2026

Monte Carlo collision probability analysis with 10^8 trials

At 10km spacing with active station-keeping, collision probability is 3.2 x 10^-10 per unit per year, well below threshold

By: Orbital Mechanics Team Validated using ESA MASTER debris model integration

Project Dyson — A volunteer-led nonprofit. All plans and research are publicly available.