Validated Last updated: January 30, 2026
Collision probability for 10km-spaced swarm elements is less than 10^-9 per unit per year
collisiondebrissafetyorbital-mechanics
Original Source
Phase 1 Swarm Control System Consensus Document
Validation History
Simulation
92% confidence Jan 30, 2026
Monte Carlo collision probability analysis with 10^8 trials
At 10km spacing with active station-keeping, collision probability is 3.2 x 10^-10 per unit per year, well below threshold
By: Orbital Mechanics Team Validated using ESA MASTER debris model integration
Details
- Related BOM Item
- bom-1-7
- Related Question
- rq-1-6
- Claim ID
- val-008
- Validations
- 1