Partially Validated Last updated: March 19, 2026
C-type NEA water delivered to L4/L5 is cheaper than lunar polar ice in 90%+ of scenarios
isruwaterasteroideconomics
Original Source
Paper 05 ISRU Water Extraction Simulation
Validation History
Simulation
60% confidence Mar 19, 2026
Paper 05 Monte Carlo (10,000 trials, physics-derived transport). Calibrated on OSIRIS-REx Bennu data.
NEA median $3,333/kg vs Lunar $4,845/kg. P(NEA cheaper)=90.4%. EP payload fraction 83% vs chemical 57% is the dominant driver.
By: Paper 05 Simulation Model uncalibrated against real extraction data. Bennu is one data point.
Details
- Related BOM Item
- bom-0-4
- Related Question
- rq-0-6
- Claim ID
- val-011
- Validations
- 1