Self-Replication Growth Simulator
Monte Carlo simulation of self-replicating manufacturing foundries with exponential growth, closure ratio degradation, and vitamin supply constraints.
Replication Parameters
Self-Replication Concept
A foundry with 96% closure can self-produce 96% of its own mass. The remaining 4% ("vitamins") must be imported from Earth or other sources.
Simulates 2 foundries growing toward 10,000 with 1.0% closure degradation per generation.
Growth Curve
Run a simulation to see the growth curve
Simulation Results
Configure the replication parameters and run the simulation to see results.
Self-Replication Physics
Closure Ratio
The fraction of a foundry's mass that can be manufactured using only locally-available materials and the foundry itself. Higher closure means less dependence on imported "vitamin" components.
Vitamin Components
Specialized components (microchips, rare elements, precision optics) that cannot be self-produced and must be supplied externally. The vitamin fraction is (1 - closure ratio).
Generational Degradation
Each generation of replication accumulates manufacturing errors, reducing the effective closure ratio. This eventually causes growth to plateau unless foundries are periodically recalibrated.
Supply Rate Constraint
Even with high closure, growth can be bottlenecked by the rate at which vitamin components are delivered. This models real supply chain limits from Earth or ISRU operations.
Monte Carlo variation applies stochastic perturbations to closure ratio (+/-2%), cycle time (+/-20%), degradation rate (+/-50%), and vitamin supply (+/-10%) to model real-world manufacturing uncertainty.
This simulator investigates RQ-3a-2: Self-replication closure threshold
View Manufacturing Foundries BOM Item