ISRU Manufacturing Transition Point Simulator
Monte Carlo simulation comparing in-space resource utilization (ISRU) manufacturing vs Earth-based manufacturing with launch costs. Determines the deployment scale at which ISRU becomes more economical.
Simulation Parameters
Lower = faster learning
Lower = faster learning
Single Config Mode
Tests your selected configuration with Monte Carlo sampling of uncertain parameters (launch cost, ISRU capital cost, learning rates).
Cost Comparison Curves
Run the simulation to see cost comparison curves
Simulation Results
Configure the simulation parameters and run to see ISRU vs Earth manufacturing cost comparison.
Simulation Methodology
This simulation models the economic crossover point between Earth-based manufacturing with launch to space versus in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) manufacturing. It addresses research question RQ-1-12: At what scale does in-space manufacturing become more economical?
- Earth costs include manufacturing with learning curve effects plus launch to deep space
- ISRU costs include high initial capital investment plus operational costs per unit
- Learning curves reduce per-unit costs as cumulative production increases
- Monte Carlo sampling captures uncertainty in launch costs and ISRU capital requirements
Key trade-off: ISRU requires significant upfront investment but avoids ongoing launch costs; Earth manufacturing is proven but launch costs dominate at scale.
Key Assumptions
Earth Manufacturing
- Fixed annual production capacity
- Learning curve: 80-90% (cost per doubling)
- Launch cost: $500-5000/kg to deep space
ISRU Manufacturing
- Seed factory capital: $10B-200B
- Ramp-up period: 1-15 years
- Learning curve: typically slower than Earth
This simulator was built to investigate research question RQ-1-12: At what scale does in-space manufacturing become more economical?
View Phase 1 Plan