2
Swarm Expansion
PlannedScale up satellite production and deployment to achieve grid-significant power delivery (~1 TW to Earth). CAPACITY COST MODEL: Self-replicating ISRU foundries produce 100,000 units; cost represents seed investment, bootstrap operations, and "vitamin" imports rather than unit-count multiplication.
Total Cost
$375.00B
$235.00B - $640.00B
Duration
50-100 years
BOM Items
3
Dependencies
1
Objectives
- Achieve self-sustaining production capacity via self-replicating foundries
- Deploy 100,000+ collector satellites (ISRU-manufactured)
- Reach Tier 1 threshold: 100 GW delivered to Earth (political sustainability milestone)
- Reach Tier 2 threshold: 1 TW delivered to Earth (grid significance, irreversibility)
- Deploy ~1,000 ground receiver stations
- Establish redundant power transmission grid with 15-30% end-to-end efficiency
- Develop autonomous maintenance systems
Project Timeline
Activity Timeline
Critical Path: 600 months
In Progress
Completed
Pending
Critical Path
Year 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 10Year 11Year 12Year 13Year 14Year 15Year 16Year 17Year 18Year 19Year 20Year 21Year 22Year 23Year 24Year 25Year 26Year 27Year 28Year 29Year 30Year 31Year 32Year 33Year 34Year 35Year 36Year 37Year 38Year 39Year 40Year 41Year 42Year 43Year 44Year 45Year 46Year 47Year 48Year 49Year 50
Click on activities to view detailed specifications. Gold indicators mark the critical path.
Bill of Materials
Spacecraft
| Item | Quantity | Unit Cost | Total Cost | Cost Range | Specs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Solar Collector Satellites ISRU-manufactured swarm elements using Reference architecture (50,000 m², 0.7 AU, 35% efficiency). Cost represents seed foundries + bootstrap + vitamin imports, not unit-count multiplication. At 100k units: ~9.5 TW gross generation, ~1 TW delivered to Earth. | 100,000 units | $2.00M | $200.00B | View Details |
Robotics
| Item | Quantity | Unit Cost | Total Cost | Cost Range | Specs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintenance Drones ISRU-manufactured autonomous repair robots. Cost represents seed drone fleet + depot infrastructure + coordination software. ~400 depots at 150,000-200,000 km spacing. Fleet: ~20,000 inspectors + ~2,000 servicers. <7 day MTTR | 5,000 units | $5.00M | $25.00B | View Details |
Infrastructure
| Item | Quantity | Unit Cost | Total Cost | Cost Range | Specs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Additional Manufacturing Capacity Self-replicating orbital factories—PRIMARY COST DRIVER for Phase 2. Cost represents seed foundry development, first-generation validation, and quality assurance. 12-month replication cycle produces all subsequent capacity. | 5 self-replicating facilities | $30.00B | $150.00B | View Details |
Total Estimated Cost: $375.00B
Uncertainty Range
Min: $235.00B Max: $640.00B
Related Research Topics
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